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Blockchain
A 10 Year Overview of Bitcoin Trading Cycles:
Bitcoin Bull/Bear Runs and Block Reward Halving Events
October 18, 2023
Bitcoin trading cycles over the past 10 years:
2011-2013: Early Adoption and First Bull Run
Bitcoin's price was relatively low, with only early adopters and enthusiasts involved.
In late 2013, Bitcoin's price surged to over $1,000, marking the first significant bull run.
2014-2015: The Bear Market
After reaching its peak, Bitcoin's price experienced a bear market.
Prices declined significantly, and the market remained relatively quiet.
2016-2017: The Bull Run and Mainstream Attention
Bitcoin's price started to climb in 2016 and gained mainstream attention.
By late 2017, Bitcoin's price reached an all-time high of nearly $20,000.
Late 2017-2018: The Great Correction
The euphoria of late 2017 was followed by a sharp correction in early 2018.
Bitcoin's price dropped significantly, leading to a bear market that lasted through most of 2018.
2019-2020: Stabilization and Accumulation
During this period, Bitcoin's price stabilized and traded within a relatively narrow range.
Some investors viewed this as an accumulation phase.
2020-2021: The Bull Run, Institutional Adoption
In late 2020 and early 2021, Bitcoin's price began another rapid ascent.
Institutional investors and corporations, like Tesla, started to invest in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin reached new all-time highs, surpassing $60,000 in early 2021.
2021-Present: Increased Volatility and Regulatory Concerns
Bitcoin continued to be volatile, experiencing rapid price fluctuations.
Regulatory concerns in various countries impacted the market sentiment.
Bitcoin's price remains significant but with increased uncertainty.
Bitcoin price and block reward halving correlation:
Bitcoin block reward halving occurred May 11, 2020 (occurs ~4yrs or 210,000 blocks). Price goes up right before halving, then capitulates (drops), then (after ~3 mos.) shoots up. Then fast correction then another spike up then a slow downtrend until next halving event (at higher overall price).
Price goes up right before because miners push to get the last bitcoin tokens at 2x (ex. S19 XP Hyd 255 Th/s miner = 0.25 BTC/yr. before halving vs. 0.125 BTC/yr. after halving).
Then price drops right after halving as some BTC mining operations self-off equipment or wait for block rewards to become profitable again.
This slows down the movement of BTC since there is less BTC produced by miners and transactions are slower due to fewer miners.
The crypto halving process was built into the Bitcoin protocol to ensure that Bitcoin would be a good store of value by remaining a deflationary currency.
Note: Dogecoin is inflationary so it’s better for daily transaction usage (more stable price, lower transaction costs).
It's important to note the US government does this by increasing rates when inflation is too high i.e., there is too much paper money moving around so it’s worth less. The Federal Reserve typically raises interest rates to slow the economy and bring inflation down i.e., it’s too expensive to buy a house right now let’s hold our cash and wait for rates to go down. There is also more refinancing when rates are low vs high.
Then big investors come in when price is low and buy BTC. Price increases and retail starts to buy then big investors sell off. BTC price drops then investors double dip and buy again low. Retail follows suit and buys. Big investors then sell, and retail eventually bails again for the whole process to repeat (this is apparently what happened after 2020 halving into 2021 when BTC reached its peak twice - once on 3/12/21 with a high of $61.2k then again 11/12/2021 - $64.4
BTC will trend down for about 1 year at the end of the above cycle before it gradually increases i.e., 11/12/2021 to 11/2022 BTC was in a downtrend. After 11/2022 BTC started to increase gradually.
It's important to note that Bitcoin's price cycles are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including market sentiment, technological developments, adoption, macroeconomic events, and regulatory changes. Additionally, each cycle's duration and intensity can vary, making it challenging to predict the exact timing and extent of bull and bear runs.
Investors should exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and consider their risk tolerance when participating in the cryptocurrency market, as it remains highly speculative and volatile.
Bitcoin: Price Action Emotional Cycles:
October 23, 2023
Believe it or not the price of Bitcoin has nearly doubled over the past 11 months. The price has gone from a low of $15,800 USD in Nov 2022 to the recent high in Oct 2023 of $31,300. If these price points don’t say emotional roller coaster I don’t know what does. The good news is price action can be correlated to 13 distinct emotional stages. These stages are Hope → Optimism → Belief → Thrill → Euphoria → Complacency → Anxiety → Denial → Panic → Capitulation → Anger → Depression → Disbelief.
If we take a look at the 11 months prior to the previous BTC halving event which would be the last 6 months of 2019 and the first 5 months of 2020, BTC remained below the major $10,300 resistance level for 8 months before retracing in March 2020 during the COVID pandemic. The ascent to $10,300 during that period represented the Disbelief phase of that cycle.
As mentioned in our previous post, the next BTC halving is scheduled for April 2024. If we reference the 2020 Disbelief stage we can assume a correlation between that cycle and the upcoming BTC halving even if the price of Bitcoin remains below $31,800 on higher time frames.
This may be a good time to pack your bags so you can take off with Bitcoin as price ascends into unknown territory in the Hope, Optimism, & Belief emotional stages given current economic uncertainty with traditional finance and the slow and steady adoption of Defi.
Bitcoin Price Manipulation: Detecting False News and Safeguarding Your Investments
October 17, 2023
Introduction
With the recent BlackRock spot ETF false confirmation on October 16, 2023 in our rearview mirror, lets take a step back to see how to detect and protect against the types of Bitcoin price manipulation events. The cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin as its poster child, is a realm of extreme volatility. It's a market that never sleeps, driven by an amalgamation of factors including market sentiment, technological advancements, and regulatory changes. One significant aspect that can drastically affect the prices of cryptocurrencies is the circulation of false news, often referred to as FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). In this article, we'll delve into the world of Bitcoin price manipulation due to false news, and we'll discuss ways to identify it and protect your investments.
The Anatomy of Bitcoin Price Manipulation
False news or FUD in the cryptocurrency world refers to the spreading of misleading or unverified information designed to create panic or uncertainty in the market. This misinformation can take various forms, such as fake news articles, social media posts, or even manipulated charts. False news can be strategically timed to influence traders and investors, causing significant price fluctuations. The objective of these manipulators is often to capitalize on these price swings.
Recognizing False News
To protect yourself from Bitcoin price manipulation due to false news, you need to become adept at recognizing it. Here are some key indicators:
a. Source Credibility: Before taking any news at face value, assess the credibility of the source. Established news outlets and official channels are generally more reliable than anonymous forums or social media accounts.
b. Multiple Sources: Cross-reference information. If a piece of news seems too impactful to be true, check if multiple reliable sources are reporting the same thing.
c. Lack of Evidence: False news often lacks concrete evidence to back the claims. Be skeptical of news that doesn't provide verifiable facts or relies on unconfirmed reports.
d. Check Dates: Sometimes, old news can resurface and be misconstrued as current information. Always check the publication date to ensure relevance.
e. Market Reaction: Observe how the market is reacting to the news. If a significant price movement seems irrational or overly emotional, it might be a sign of manipulation.
Verifying News
In an age of instant information dissemination, it's crucial to verify news before making any decisions. Here's how you can do that:
a. Fact-Checking Websites: Websites like Snopes, FactCheck.org, and PolitiFact are invaluable resources for verifying the accuracy of news.
b. Official Announcements: Look for official announcements from reputable sources, like cryptocurrency projects or regulatory bodies.
c. Community Discussions: Engage in cryptocurrency forums and communities to get a sense of the consensus on a particular news item. The collective intelligence of the community can help you filter out false information.
d. Expert Opinions: Seek out opinions from cryptocurrency experts and analysts. They can provide valuable insights into the authenticity of news.
Protecting Your Investments
Once you've identified false news, you can take steps to protect your investments and make informed decisions:
Stay Calm: The most crucial aspect of dealing with false news is to remain calm. Avoid making impulsive decisions based on unverified information. Panic selling or buying can lead to significant losses.
Diversify Your Portfolio: Diversification is a risk management strategy. By holding a variety of assets, you can mitigate the impact of adverse price movements in a single cryptocurrency.
Set Stop-Loss Orders: Utilize stop-loss orders to limit your potential losses. These orders automatically sell your assets if they reach a predetermined price, protecting your investments during market turmoil.
Keep Abreast of Real News: Staying informed about real, impactful developments in the cryptocurrency space can help you distinguish false news from genuine news.
Long-Term Perspective: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile in the short term but have shown substantial growth in the long run. Taking a long-term investment perspective can help you weather short-term price manipulations.
Conclusion
Bitcoin price manipulation due to false news is a persistent challenge in the cryptocurrency market. Recognizing and protecting yourself from this manipulation is crucial for safeguarding your investments. By becoming a vigilant and informed investor, you can navigate the cryptocurrency market with more confidence and make decisions based on verified information rather than speculation. Remember, in the world of cryptocurrencies, knowledge is your most potent weapon against price manipulation.
Unrealized Losses on Securities at Commercial Banks: US Banking Collapse Imminent
November 7, 2023
US banks like JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are quietly revealing massive unrealized losses as footnotes on their quarterly financial reports humming to the tune of $558 billion USD. These footnotes were the very reason people started to pull out their money ranging anywhere from +$1k to +$100M USD from banks like Silvergate Capital, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic leading their collapse. Additionally a well known banking insider has stated the US banking system only has a few months (6 at the most) before its eventually collapse - he said this with 99% certainty - the only reason it wasn’t 100% is that it hasn’t happened yet.
This doesn’t mean you won’t have access to your US fiat currency (USD) it means the money you have will be worthless (similar to how Venezuelan fiat is deemed as actual paper waste). The question is how do you protect yourself against this collapse. The answer resides in two must have assets; real gold (or silver) and digital gold (bitcoin). These two things are going to be the key to surviving this imminent banking collapse in order to get essential items needed to survive as trading fiat currency such as the US dollar for goods and services will simply not be an option.
JM Bullion is a top rated source to purchase real gold and silver.
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